BDI еще раз

Из Telegraph

William Lyth from the Baltic Exchange says you need to keep an eye on two twists that are unrelated to the health of the global economy.

1) “There are too many ships. People have over-ordered and it is starting to bite. There are 235 new Capesize vessels hitting the market this year,” he said.

2) More murky is the game being played between China and the big Iron ore companies, Vale, BHP, and Rio. China has stockpiled a near record 70 million of iron ore. If it using this reserve as bargaining tool in its battle with suppliers, that would explain part of the Capesize crash (and Capesize make up a quarter of the BDI index)

Дальше по тексту цифры про ж/д перевозки. В принципе, с рациональным замечанием, что ж/д, это не опережающий, а скорее подтверждающий индикатор.

И в конце, почти мои мысли:

Yes, we have seen a large rise in most indicators from the depths of despair in early 2009. That does not tell us very much. Massive stimulus launched a V-shaped recovery despite the debt burden hanging over the economy. Perma-bears have always argued that this was built on unstable foundations, and would tip over as government stimulus fades.

We will find out over the next three or four months whether they are right.

В сентября будем смотреть, что там с рынком недвижимости...

illashenko    МегаБлог     commodity, macroeconomics, market strategy, МегаБлог

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